Post by Fenlander on Jun 12, 2008 9:18:41 GMT 2
Power cuts could be much more frequent this summer
Power outages will become more frequent in the upcoming months, with experts warning that the outages will be wide ranging; according to some worst-case scenarios, even subway systems will be rendered inoperable and hospitals will deal with blackouts in July and August.
Electricity cutoffs have been expected for several years; however, it is now estimated that the outages will amount to a few hours per day due to recent developments. But just how has Turkey turned from a country with an energy surplus to the situation it now finds itself in? A population increase of 860,000 per year as well as an annual economic growth rate of 8 percent are cited as the primary reasons. The crisis has become graver because no sufficient investment has been made in parallel with this growth rate.
Last year, Turkey’s electricity consumption amounted to 192 billion kilowatts. Considering that the annual rate of increase was 8 percent, it is estimated that this figure will total 205 billion kilowatts by the end of this year. In addition to the absence of investments to balance this difference, an increase in electricity consumption over the summer will worsen the crisis. While 15 billion kilowatts per hour (kWh) were consumed last January, the figure exceeded 17 billion in July and August of the same year. The total consumption of 16 billion kWh in January of this year will reportedly increase to 19 billion in mid-summer. The only way to offset this gap is to rely on power outages.
Currently, relatively insignificant power outages are used; the cutoffs, however, will become more frequent over the summer in places with high temperatures. Officials from the Energy Ministry estimate that the duration of the outages will exceed two hours. The National Electricity Load Directorate, located in Ankara’s Gölbaþý district, plans the outages, and nine regional directorates determine local blackouts.
Rural areas will be the first to experience the outages, according to the ministry. The East and Southeast, where illicit use of electricity is prevalent, are at the top of the list, but western Turkey will not be spared. Currently, power outages range from half an hour to two hours in a number of Ankara suburbs. A region’s social and economic situation will determine the duration of the power outage for the region. In regions of equal significance, outages will alternate and last for half an hour each.
In some European countries, officials are obligated by law to declare power outages three months ahead of implementing them. The ministry will take into consideration the timing of the cutoffs in an attempt to not attract complaints from the public. Speaking on the matter, a high-level bureaucrat from the ministry says: “There will be outages this year. All scenarios are under discussion. There is work to increase current capacity, but cutoffs will be made at times when electricity is not vital to people.” Power outages are expected to take place mostly at night. During the day, hours when meals are not being prepared will be preferred.
Obstacles before implementation of five-phase plan
Energy Minister Hilmi Güler frequently says that energy will be based on a five-step plan: hydroelectricity, coal, natural gas, renewable energy and nuclear power. The current plan entails that 20 percent of energy needs will be met by each option. However, the available data show that it is not feasible to implement the plan -- at least at the present time. The share of domestic resources in electricity production is in decline, whereas the capacity of natural gas plants is on the rise.
Turkey is becoming more dependent on natural gas. Currently, natural gas accounts for almost 50 percent of energy consumption. Because alternative resources will not be taken into consideration, it is estimated that this share will reach 60 percent in a few years. The prevalence of natural gas-powered power plants discourages alternate fuels and power plants. Investors’ decision to rely primarily on natural gas power plants has kept Turkey from looking at other options. Turkey currently purchases 65 percent of its natural gas from Russia. High temperatures lead to a 5-8 percent loss in electricity production by natural gas power plants.
Inefficient plants are another reason for the current problems. Thermal plants do not operate at full capacity. For instance, a second unit was put into operation at the Afþin-Elbistan power plant two years ago, but because the plant’s coal tender is not complete, the coal supply for the first unit is being shared by both, meaning both units operate at half capacity. The new unit does, however, contribute to production because any technical problem with the plant boiler’s pipes requires at least three days to be fixed because of bureaucracy and red tape. The private sector, conversely, reduces this time to six hours in an attempt to avoid loss.
A number of coal plants, in operation for more than five decades, require parts replacement and maintenance. When a thermal plant breaks down in the summer, when consumption is at its peak, maintenance is postponed in an attempt to maintain electricity generation. For this reason, repairs that would normally cost YTL 100,000 subsequently cost $1 million. Additionally, despite Turkey’s substantial coal resources, it generates electricity by using imported coal.
Water levels at dams low
Hydroelectric power plants (HEP) are the second most important electricity producers. HEPs meet 20 percent of the country’s electricity demand, though in 2006 they met 22 percent of demand. In 2007 the HEP share in electricity production suddenly dropped to 16 percent because of drought, which has continued into this year as well, likely leading to a decrease in the amount of electricity to be generated, exacerbating the crisis.
The water level of 46 dams constructed for energy-production purposes was 59.7 percent of capacity in 2007; this year, this figure stands at 43 percent. This will negatively affect electricity generation. Estimates show Turkey will generate 430 billion kWh from local resources. Of this, HEPs have the potential of producing about 130 billion kWh; one-third of this is currently used, 9 percent of this is under construction and the remaining part remains untouched. The coal potential reportedly exceeds the capacity to generate 100 billion kWh every year, though current production is at the level of 40 billion kWh.
The fact that it will take years to start using wind, solar and geothermal resources has led to the reliance on the blackout option. In addition to investment constraints, cities like Antalya have experienced an increase in consumption of three to four times the nationwide average. Electricity consumption increases by 8 percent every year, but this figure is 27 percent in Antalya because of an increase in the number of tourists and expats who have chosen to settle in the city.
The ministry has replaced several transformer stations in Antalya to avoid problems in the summer, and authorities have sought ways to prevent power outages in the city. The ministry has focused its efforts on efficient use of electricity rather than cutoffs. The primary reason for the increased consumption is heavy reliance on air conditioners; inexpensive Chinese AC units consume excessive amounts of electricity.
Consumption rising, capacity remains the same
The power producing capacity of Turkey’s state and private companies has increased from 31,000 megawatts in 2002 to 41,000. The Electricity Production Co. General Directorate (EÜAÞ) of the Energy Ministry had a power producing capacity of 21,000 megawatts six years ago and has seen a small increase of 2,000 megawatts since. Despite the 25 percent growth in Turkey, electricity production rates have remained almost unchanged because of a lack of investment in the sector. The private sector is reluctant to invest because it views unit prices as too low and the sector as not very profitable.
Electricity consumption is expected to reach 200 billion kilowatts this year. According to EÜAÞ projections, the demand for electricity will rise to 242 billion kilowatts in 2010, to 356 billion in 2015 and to 499 billion in 2020. No natural gas plant will be put into operation in the next three years. The same also applies to coal and hydroelectric power plants. Even if the construction of a nuclear power plant begins immediately, it would not be completed for some time. In light of this, the future of Turkey’s energy security does not seem bright.
According to Justice and Development Party (AK Party) deputy and Energy Commission Chairman Soner Aksoy, the government’s energy policies have failed. Aksoy, asking for the government to get involved in renewable energy and nuclear power, says: “We have only recently begun to consider these options. We have already lost five years.” Aksoy attributes this failure to Minister Güler’s approach despite the AK Party’s emphasis on liberal economy. Noting that the state pays large sums to buy electricity, Aksoy underlines that dependence on natural gas poses a great danger to Turkey. “It appears that we have large deposits of coal in coal mines that can be used for electricity production, but in reality we do not. We have water resources which some consider means for electricity generation, but in reality we do not. We have not properly supported wind energy, and no one even talks about solar energy. There have been many obstacles. We are unable to make progress on geothermal energy. Nejat Veziorðlu arrived in Turkey to present information on hydrogen energy, but we simply told him to get out. The energy minister did not keep his promises. Measures should be taken immediately. Building more natural gas plants is not the solution as they are neither easy to build nor inexpensive,” he says.
Republican People’s Party (CHP) Adana deputy Tacidar Seyhan says Turkey is marching toward darkness. Stressing that Turkey is currently unable to invest though it had a reserve capacity of 50 billion kilowatts when the AK Party took office, Seyhan says: “There will be serious supply problems in the coming years. Turkey ran late to address the problem. Only 1 percent of projects to alleviate the electricity shortage will be put into operation.” Seyhan holds that Turkey suffers from a dependence on natural gas. The state and the private sector are both reluctant to invest. Plants currently operating are for sale. Seyhan asserts that Turkey will have to live through the upcoming three years without abundant electricity and that this will raise prices to high levels.
This year will be a critical test
Turkish Co-generation Association Chairman and Enerco Energy board member Özkan Aðýþ, brought to mind that Turkey has the capacity to produce 41,000 megawatts, with demand last summer increasing to 31,000 megawatts. He asks, “How does this available stock not meet demand?” In response he says: “Old power plants produce 6,000 megawatts and do not even operate at 50 percent of capacity. The capacity of hydroelectric power plants stands at 14,000 megawatts, but these plants run at half capacity during the summer. The dams are only holding a fraction of their capacity, and this may drop to severe levels in June or July of this year. We estimate that demand will rise to 32,500 megawatts, and meeting this demand will be difficult.”
Professor Yunus Çengel from the University of Nevada is an expert on geothermal energy, solar energy and energy saving and advises the Energy Ministry on energy saving. Noting that the current situation with electricity is not bright, Çengel underlines that the construction of power plants is not simple. “Power plants are not constructed for immediate needs. In times of urgent need, saving is the best option. If we use lights efficiently, three-fourths of household electricity may be saved. This means saving 2,000 megawatts.” This figure should be taken into account given that there are 17,000 households in Turkey.
Çengel notes that the US expects 1-2 percent growth in energy needs by 2025. Officials plan to meet half of this through savings. Çengel says Turks are prone to luxury consumption: “The only concern in Turkey is reliance on brand new items. We search for what our neighbor has that we do not. We have coal and geothermal energy. We have a greater potential than Germany in wind energy, but there is a tendency to use natural gas. We are an energy-rich country, but we still need energy. This is mismanagement.”
Electrical Engineers Chamber Chairman Musa Çeçen, known for his objections to the government’s policies, warns that the energy situation will be grave with the coming of summer, when electricity consumption peaks. Çeçen says: “The market ideology has failed. Turkey is marching toward darkness. Price increases will affect Turkish industrialists.”
Power outages will become more frequent in the upcoming months, with experts warning that the outages will be wide ranging; according to some worst-case scenarios, even subway systems will be rendered inoperable and hospitals will deal with blackouts in July and August.
Electricity cutoffs have been expected for several years; however, it is now estimated that the outages will amount to a few hours per day due to recent developments. But just how has Turkey turned from a country with an energy surplus to the situation it now finds itself in? A population increase of 860,000 per year as well as an annual economic growth rate of 8 percent are cited as the primary reasons. The crisis has become graver because no sufficient investment has been made in parallel with this growth rate.
Last year, Turkey’s electricity consumption amounted to 192 billion kilowatts. Considering that the annual rate of increase was 8 percent, it is estimated that this figure will total 205 billion kilowatts by the end of this year. In addition to the absence of investments to balance this difference, an increase in electricity consumption over the summer will worsen the crisis. While 15 billion kilowatts per hour (kWh) were consumed last January, the figure exceeded 17 billion in July and August of the same year. The total consumption of 16 billion kWh in January of this year will reportedly increase to 19 billion in mid-summer. The only way to offset this gap is to rely on power outages.
Currently, relatively insignificant power outages are used; the cutoffs, however, will become more frequent over the summer in places with high temperatures. Officials from the Energy Ministry estimate that the duration of the outages will exceed two hours. The National Electricity Load Directorate, located in Ankara’s Gölbaþý district, plans the outages, and nine regional directorates determine local blackouts.
Rural areas will be the first to experience the outages, according to the ministry. The East and Southeast, where illicit use of electricity is prevalent, are at the top of the list, but western Turkey will not be spared. Currently, power outages range from half an hour to two hours in a number of Ankara suburbs. A region’s social and economic situation will determine the duration of the power outage for the region. In regions of equal significance, outages will alternate and last for half an hour each.
In some European countries, officials are obligated by law to declare power outages three months ahead of implementing them. The ministry will take into consideration the timing of the cutoffs in an attempt to not attract complaints from the public. Speaking on the matter, a high-level bureaucrat from the ministry says: “There will be outages this year. All scenarios are under discussion. There is work to increase current capacity, but cutoffs will be made at times when electricity is not vital to people.” Power outages are expected to take place mostly at night. During the day, hours when meals are not being prepared will be preferred.
Obstacles before implementation of five-phase plan
Energy Minister Hilmi Güler frequently says that energy will be based on a five-step plan: hydroelectricity, coal, natural gas, renewable energy and nuclear power. The current plan entails that 20 percent of energy needs will be met by each option. However, the available data show that it is not feasible to implement the plan -- at least at the present time. The share of domestic resources in electricity production is in decline, whereas the capacity of natural gas plants is on the rise.
Turkey is becoming more dependent on natural gas. Currently, natural gas accounts for almost 50 percent of energy consumption. Because alternative resources will not be taken into consideration, it is estimated that this share will reach 60 percent in a few years. The prevalence of natural gas-powered power plants discourages alternate fuels and power plants. Investors’ decision to rely primarily on natural gas power plants has kept Turkey from looking at other options. Turkey currently purchases 65 percent of its natural gas from Russia. High temperatures lead to a 5-8 percent loss in electricity production by natural gas power plants.
Inefficient plants are another reason for the current problems. Thermal plants do not operate at full capacity. For instance, a second unit was put into operation at the Afþin-Elbistan power plant two years ago, but because the plant’s coal tender is not complete, the coal supply for the first unit is being shared by both, meaning both units operate at half capacity. The new unit does, however, contribute to production because any technical problem with the plant boiler’s pipes requires at least three days to be fixed because of bureaucracy and red tape. The private sector, conversely, reduces this time to six hours in an attempt to avoid loss.
A number of coal plants, in operation for more than five decades, require parts replacement and maintenance. When a thermal plant breaks down in the summer, when consumption is at its peak, maintenance is postponed in an attempt to maintain electricity generation. For this reason, repairs that would normally cost YTL 100,000 subsequently cost $1 million. Additionally, despite Turkey’s substantial coal resources, it generates electricity by using imported coal.
Water levels at dams low
Hydroelectric power plants (HEP) are the second most important electricity producers. HEPs meet 20 percent of the country’s electricity demand, though in 2006 they met 22 percent of demand. In 2007 the HEP share in electricity production suddenly dropped to 16 percent because of drought, which has continued into this year as well, likely leading to a decrease in the amount of electricity to be generated, exacerbating the crisis.
The water level of 46 dams constructed for energy-production purposes was 59.7 percent of capacity in 2007; this year, this figure stands at 43 percent. This will negatively affect electricity generation. Estimates show Turkey will generate 430 billion kWh from local resources. Of this, HEPs have the potential of producing about 130 billion kWh; one-third of this is currently used, 9 percent of this is under construction and the remaining part remains untouched. The coal potential reportedly exceeds the capacity to generate 100 billion kWh every year, though current production is at the level of 40 billion kWh.
The fact that it will take years to start using wind, solar and geothermal resources has led to the reliance on the blackout option. In addition to investment constraints, cities like Antalya have experienced an increase in consumption of three to four times the nationwide average. Electricity consumption increases by 8 percent every year, but this figure is 27 percent in Antalya because of an increase in the number of tourists and expats who have chosen to settle in the city.
The ministry has replaced several transformer stations in Antalya to avoid problems in the summer, and authorities have sought ways to prevent power outages in the city. The ministry has focused its efforts on efficient use of electricity rather than cutoffs. The primary reason for the increased consumption is heavy reliance on air conditioners; inexpensive Chinese AC units consume excessive amounts of electricity.
Consumption rising, capacity remains the same
The power producing capacity of Turkey’s state and private companies has increased from 31,000 megawatts in 2002 to 41,000. The Electricity Production Co. General Directorate (EÜAÞ) of the Energy Ministry had a power producing capacity of 21,000 megawatts six years ago and has seen a small increase of 2,000 megawatts since. Despite the 25 percent growth in Turkey, electricity production rates have remained almost unchanged because of a lack of investment in the sector. The private sector is reluctant to invest because it views unit prices as too low and the sector as not very profitable.
Electricity consumption is expected to reach 200 billion kilowatts this year. According to EÜAÞ projections, the demand for electricity will rise to 242 billion kilowatts in 2010, to 356 billion in 2015 and to 499 billion in 2020. No natural gas plant will be put into operation in the next three years. The same also applies to coal and hydroelectric power plants. Even if the construction of a nuclear power plant begins immediately, it would not be completed for some time. In light of this, the future of Turkey’s energy security does not seem bright.
According to Justice and Development Party (AK Party) deputy and Energy Commission Chairman Soner Aksoy, the government’s energy policies have failed. Aksoy, asking for the government to get involved in renewable energy and nuclear power, says: “We have only recently begun to consider these options. We have already lost five years.” Aksoy attributes this failure to Minister Güler’s approach despite the AK Party’s emphasis on liberal economy. Noting that the state pays large sums to buy electricity, Aksoy underlines that dependence on natural gas poses a great danger to Turkey. “It appears that we have large deposits of coal in coal mines that can be used for electricity production, but in reality we do not. We have water resources which some consider means for electricity generation, but in reality we do not. We have not properly supported wind energy, and no one even talks about solar energy. There have been many obstacles. We are unable to make progress on geothermal energy. Nejat Veziorðlu arrived in Turkey to present information on hydrogen energy, but we simply told him to get out. The energy minister did not keep his promises. Measures should be taken immediately. Building more natural gas plants is not the solution as they are neither easy to build nor inexpensive,” he says.
Republican People’s Party (CHP) Adana deputy Tacidar Seyhan says Turkey is marching toward darkness. Stressing that Turkey is currently unable to invest though it had a reserve capacity of 50 billion kilowatts when the AK Party took office, Seyhan says: “There will be serious supply problems in the coming years. Turkey ran late to address the problem. Only 1 percent of projects to alleviate the electricity shortage will be put into operation.” Seyhan holds that Turkey suffers from a dependence on natural gas. The state and the private sector are both reluctant to invest. Plants currently operating are for sale. Seyhan asserts that Turkey will have to live through the upcoming three years without abundant electricity and that this will raise prices to high levels.
This year will be a critical test
Turkish Co-generation Association Chairman and Enerco Energy board member Özkan Aðýþ, brought to mind that Turkey has the capacity to produce 41,000 megawatts, with demand last summer increasing to 31,000 megawatts. He asks, “How does this available stock not meet demand?” In response he says: “Old power plants produce 6,000 megawatts and do not even operate at 50 percent of capacity. The capacity of hydroelectric power plants stands at 14,000 megawatts, but these plants run at half capacity during the summer. The dams are only holding a fraction of their capacity, and this may drop to severe levels in June or July of this year. We estimate that demand will rise to 32,500 megawatts, and meeting this demand will be difficult.”
Professor Yunus Çengel from the University of Nevada is an expert on geothermal energy, solar energy and energy saving and advises the Energy Ministry on energy saving. Noting that the current situation with electricity is not bright, Çengel underlines that the construction of power plants is not simple. “Power plants are not constructed for immediate needs. In times of urgent need, saving is the best option. If we use lights efficiently, three-fourths of household electricity may be saved. This means saving 2,000 megawatts.” This figure should be taken into account given that there are 17,000 households in Turkey.
Çengel notes that the US expects 1-2 percent growth in energy needs by 2025. Officials plan to meet half of this through savings. Çengel says Turks are prone to luxury consumption: “The only concern in Turkey is reliance on brand new items. We search for what our neighbor has that we do not. We have coal and geothermal energy. We have a greater potential than Germany in wind energy, but there is a tendency to use natural gas. We are an energy-rich country, but we still need energy. This is mismanagement.”
Electrical Engineers Chamber Chairman Musa Çeçen, known for his objections to the government’s policies, warns that the energy situation will be grave with the coming of summer, when electricity consumption peaks. Çeçen says: “The market ideology has failed. Turkey is marching toward darkness. Price increases will affect Turkish industrialists.”